The Distribution of Time Between Recessions: Revisited (with MCHT)

Introduction

These past few weeks I’ve been writing about a new package I created, MCHT. Those blog posts were basically tutorials demonstrating how to use the package. (Read the first in the series here.) I’m done for now explaining the technical details of the package. Now I’m going to use the package for purpose I initially had: exploring the distribution of time separating U.S. economic recessions.

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A Recession Before 2020 Is Likely; On the Distribution of Time Between Recessions

I recently saw a Reddit thread in r/PoliticalDiscussion asking the question “If the economy is still booming 2020, how should the Democratic address this?” This gets to an issue that’s been on my mind since at least 2016, maybe even 2014: when will the current period of economic growth end?

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Three Reasons Why Investigating Trump is Not About Being a “Sore Loser”

When I say that I want the investigations of the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia strengthened, I hear the infuriating criticism that I’m just a sore loser, that I’m not over the 2016 election, that I’m just upset that Hillary Clinton lost. Sure, I wanted Hillary Clinton to win. I really wanted Hillary Clinton to win, and I really don’t like Donald Trump. But this line of reasoning fails spectacularly to appreciate why I want Donald Trump’s campaign investigated.

Here’s a list of reasons why the “sore loser” argument is wrong.

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