What is the probability that in a box of a dozen donuts picked from 14 flavors there’s no more than 3 flavors in the box?

Problem

Dave’s Donuts offers 14 flavors of donuts (consider the supply of each flavor as being unlimited). The “grab bag” box consists of flavors randomly selected to be in the box, each flavor equally likely for each one of the dozen donuts. What is the probability that at most three flavors are in the grab bag box of a dozen?

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Announcing MCHT: An R Package for Bootstrap and Monte Carlo Hypothesis Testing

I am very excited to announce my first (public) package (and the second package I’ve ever written, the first being unannounced until the accompanying paper is accepted). That package is MCHT, a package for bootstrap and Monte Carlo hypothesis testing, currently available on GitHub.

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Evaluating Olive McBride with the Arkham Horror LCG Chaos Bag Simulator in R

(If you care, there may be spoilers in this post.)

Introduction

I love Arkham Horror; The Card Game. I love it more than I really should; it’s ridiculously fun. It’s a cooperative card game where you build a deck representing a character in the Cthulhu mythos universe, and with that deck you play scenarios in a narrative campaign1 where you grapple with the horrors of the mythos. Your actions in (and between) scenarios have repercussions for how the campaign plays out, changing the story, and you use experience points accumulated in the scenarios to upgrade your deck with better cards.

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