The Distribution of Time Between Recessions: Revisited (with MCHT)

Introduction

These past few weeks I’ve been writing about a new package I created, MCHT. Those blog posts were basically tutorials demonstrating how to use the package. (Read the first in the series here.) I’m done for now explaining the technical details of the package. Now I’m going to use the package for purpose I initially had: exploring the distribution of time separating U.S. economic recessions.

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Maximized Monte Carlo Testing with MCHT

Introduction

I introduced MCHT two weeks ago and presented it as a package for Monte Carlo and boostrap hypothesis testing. Last week, I delved into important technical details and showed how to make self-contained MCHTest objects that don’t suffer side effects from changes in the global namespace. In this article I show how to perform maximized Monte Carlo hypothesis testing using MCHT, as described in [1].

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A Recession Before 2020 Is Likely; On the Distribution of Time Between Recessions

I recently saw a Reddit thread in r/PoliticalDiscussion asking the question “If the economy is still booming 2020, how should the Democratic address this?” This gets to an issue that’s been on my mind since at least 2016, maybe even 2014: when will the current period of economic growth end?

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