What is the probability that in a box of a dozen donuts picked from 14 flavors there’s no more than 3 flavors in the box?

Problem

Dave’s Donuts offers 14 flavors of donuts (consider the supply of each flavor as being unlimited). The “grab bag” box consists of flavors randomly selected to be in the box, each flavor equally likely for each one of the dozen donuts. What is the probability that at most three flavors are in the grab bag box of a dozen?

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Introducing Rank Data Analysis with Arkham Horror Data

Introduction

Last week I analyzed player rankings of the Arkham Horror LCG classes. This week I explain what I did in the data analysis. As I mentioned, this is the first time that I attempted inference with rank data, and I discovered how rich the subject is. A lot of the tools for the analysis I had to write myself, so you now have the code I didn’t have access to when I started.

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Organizing R Research Projects: CPAT, A Case Study

Introduction

Months ago, I asked a question to the community: how should I organize my R research projects? After writing that post, doing some reading, then putting a plan in practice, I now have my own answer.

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Problems in Estimating GARCH Parameters in R (Part 2; rugarch)

Introduction

Now here is a blog post that has been sitting on the shelf far longer than it should have. Over a year ago I wrote an article about problems I was having when estimating the parameters of a GARCH(1,1) model in R. I documented the behavior of parameter estimates (with a focus on \beta) and perceived pathological behavior when those estimates are computed using fGarch. I called for help from the R community, including sending out the blog post over the R Finance mailing list.

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Making a Profit with Henry Wan in Arkham Horror: The Card Game

Introduction

The Forgotten Age cycle of Arkham Horror is at a close and Fantasy Flight Games already announced the next cycle, The Circle Undone. Not only that, they’ve announced two mythos packs at a rate that… surprised me. A new cycle announcement and two mythos pack announcements in less than two months? Am I the only one who finds the new pace of announcements surprising? Perhaps that means they want to get product out at a faster pace?

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The Distribution of Time Between Recessions: Revisited (with MCHT)

Introduction

These past few weeks I’ve been writing about a new package I created, MCHT. Those blog posts were basically tutorials demonstrating how to use the package. (Read the first in the series here.) I’m done for now explaining the technical details of the package. Now I’m going to use the package for purpose I initially had: exploring the distribution of time separating U.S. economic recessions.

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Time Series and MCHT

Introduction

Over the past few weeks I’ve published articles about my new package, MCHT, starting with an introduction, a further technical discussion, demonstrating maximized Monte Carlo (MMC) hypothesis testing, bootstrap hypothesis testing, and last week I showed how to handle multi-sample and multivariate data. This is the final article where I explain the capabilities of the package. I show how MCHT can handle time series data.

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